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Adachi said Japan has yet to see a positive wage-inflation cycle, in which wages and inflation rise together, kick off. The BOJ can start debating an exit strategy only when the chance of such a cycle emerging heightens, he added. But Adachi said the BOJ did not necessarily need to wait until inflation-adjusted wage growth turns positive for it to normalise monetary policy. Hawkish member Naoki Tamura in August signalled a chance of ending negative rates early next year, saying Japan's inflation was already "clearly in sight" of the BOJ's target. With inflation exceeding its 2% target for more than a year, many market players expect the BOJ to end negative rates and YCC next year, with some betting on a move as early as January.

Persons: Issei Kato, Seiji Adachi, Adachi, we're, Naoki Tamura, YCC, Leika Kihara, Takahiko Wada, Chang, Ran Kim, Jamie Freed Organizations: Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, TOKYO, MATSUYAMA, Matsuyama

☆ Japanese inflation picks up as BOJ pivot bets grow
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-23 | by ( Tetsushi Kajimoto | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Core inflation had slowed to 2.8% in September from 3.1% in August, the first time it was below 3% since August 2022. Many analysts see the yield control policy as becoming obsolete as the central bank has made the 10-year yield target more and more flexible, sending the JGB yield closer to 1%. However, the BOJ has brushed aside such speculation, saying that the current global cost-push inflation is not sustainable. The latest consumer inflation data is among indicators the BOJ will eye at its two-day policy meeting ending on Dec. 19, its last scheduled review this year. Japanese firms, too, are closely watching inflation data as the government is pressing them to raise wages to help employees deal with the higher cost of living.

Persons: Androniki, mths BOJ, Tetsushi Kajimoto, Takahiko Wada, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, TOKYO

☆ BOJ's hawkish rhetoric signals chance negative rates may end soon
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-15 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Having watered down YCC at its last policy meeting, the BOJ's next goal is to pull short-term rates out of negative territory early next year, sources have told Reuters. That leaves open the chance of an policy change in January, when the BOJ next reviews its quarterly price forecasts. Most expect an end to both YCC and negative rates. "It's an awfully big upgrade and shows how the BOJ had made estimates that were way too low," said former BOJ top economist Hideo Hayakawa, who expects negative rates to end in April. Even if it ends negative rates, nominal short-term borrowing costs will remain well below levels that neither stimulate nor cool the economy - estimated by analysts to stand somewhere near 2%.

Persons: Issei Kato, Ueda, Kazuo Ueda's, Haruhiko Kuroda, Kuroda, Mari Iwashita, Hideo Hayakawa, Takahide, Leika Kihara, Takahiko Wada, Sam Holmes Organizations: Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Daiwa Securities, Japan Center for Economic Research, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, TOKYO, U.S

The data reinforces expectations the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will revise up its inflation forecasts when it produces fresh quarterly projections at next week's policy meeting. The Tokyo core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile fresh food but includes fuel costs, rose 2.7% in October from a year earlier, government data showed on Friday, exceeding market forecasts for a 2.5% gain. The so-called "core core" index that strips away both fresh food and fuel prices - closely watched by the BOJ as a gauge of broader price trends - rose 3.8% in October from a year earlier after a 3.9% increase in September, the data showed. "With services inflation continuing to accelerate, it will take a long time before inflation falls back below the BOJ's 2% target." The BOJ remains a global dovish outlier, having maintained ultra-loose policy even as major central banks elsewhere raised interest rates aggressively to fight rampant inflation.

Persons: Androniki, Marcel Thieliant, Takahiko Wada, Shri Navaratnam, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of Japan, Reuters Graphics, Capital Economics, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, TOKYO, Asia

Summary Sept core consumer prices up 2.8% yr/yr vs f'cast +2.7%Core-core index up 4.2% yr/yr in Sept - govtData among factors to come under scrutiny at BOJ's Oct meetingTOKYO, Oct 20 (Reuters) - Japan's core inflation in September slowed below the 3% threshold for the first time in over a year but stayed above the central bank target, keeping alive expectations that policymakers will phase out ultra-easy monetary policy. "While inflation weakened in September, we think inflation will only fall below the BoJ's 2% target by the end of next year," said Marcel Thieliant, head of Asia-Pacific at Capital Economics. The nationwide core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile fresh food costs, rose 2.8% in September from a year earlier - the first time it has slowed below 3% since August 2022, government data showed on Friday. All the same, the rate has tracked above the BOJ's 2% target for 18 straight months. Reporting by Takahiko Wada and Leika Kihara; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman and Shri NavaratnamOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Marcel Thieliant, Takahiko Wada, Leika, Muralikumar Anantharaman Organizations: Bank of Japan, Capital Economics, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Asia

A woman looks at items at a shop in Tokyo, Japan, March 24, 2023. The Tokyo core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile fresh food but includes fuel costs, rose 2.5% in September from a year earlier, against a median market forecast for a 2.6% gain. It slowed from a 2.8% increase in August but exceeded the Bank of Japan's 2% target for the 16th straight month. Analysts expect inflation to keep slowing in coming months reflecting recent declines in commodity prices and the base effect of last year's sharp rises. The inflation overshoot led the BOJ to make modest tweaks to its bond yield control policy last month, a move investors saw as a shift away from decades of ultra-loose monetary policy.

Persons: Androniki, Kazuo Ueda, Leika Kihara, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of Japan's, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, TOKYO

☆ BOJ policymaker sees shift in Japan's deflationary mindset
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-06 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Policymaker Takata stressed the need to maintain ultra-loose monetary policy for the time being, as slowing global growth was heightening uncertainty on whether the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) 2% inflation target was sustainably achievable. In an earlier speech, he said he believe Japan's economy was "finally seeing early signs" of achieving the 2% target. Two other BOJ board members earlier gave diverging views on how soon the central bank should consider scaling back its radical stimulus. Japan's core inflation hit 3.1% in July, exceeding the BOJ's 2% target for the 16th straight month. BOJ officials have said the central bank must keep interest rates ultra-low until robust domestic demand and sustained wage growth replace rising import costs as key drivers of inflation.

Persons: Androniki, Takata, Hajime Takata, Policymaker Takata, Haruhiko Kuroda, Leika Kihara, Tetsushi Kajimoto, Takahiko Wada, Tom Hogue, Lincoln, John Stonestreet Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of Japan's, CHINA IMPACT, Thomson Locations: Japan, Tokyo, TOKYO, China, CHINA

A man walks at the headquarters of Bank of Japan in Tokyo, Japan, January 18, 2023. The central bank would take time to determine whether it can raise interest rates as it waits for evidence that a sustained economic recovery will eradicate Japan's deflationary mindset, he said. "The key is for the economy to keep recovering," Nakamura told a news conference, when asked about the conditions for ending negative interest rates. We therefore need more time before shifting to monetary tightening," he said, adding the key was to determine whether companies' growth expectations were heightening. Markets are divided on whether the BOJ could remove the yield cap before raising short-term rates, ditch both simultaneously, or keep the yield cap when ending negative rates as a precaution against an abrupt rise in long-term yields.

Persons: Issei Kato, Nakamura, Toyoaki Nakamura, Japan's, we're, Naoki Tamura, Kazuo Ueda, Leika Kihara, Christian Schmollinger, Navaratnam, Gerry Doyle Organizations: Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Hitachi Ltd, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, GIFU, Gifu

☆ Insight: BOJ makes bold shift as yen risks grow too big to ignore
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-03 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +9 min

The BOJ's decision shook markets on Friday and contrasted sharply with Ueda's more cautious comments in recent months about the dangers of retreating too quickly from accommodative Kuroda-era policies. "There's also a small but probable risk of inflation overshooting in Japan, which gave the BOJ reason to act." NEW PRIORITIESThe BOJ's policy decision last week signalled to investors that it would now allow the 10-year government bond yield to move closer to 1% before it intervenes. 'BIT BY BIT'The shift in thinking gained momentum at the BOJ's June policy meeting, but not enough to turn the tide. It was a test case, or a preliminary exercise, toward future policy normalisation," said former BOJ board member Takahide Kiuchi.

Persons: Issei Kato, Kazuo Ueda, Haruhiko Kuroda, Fumio, accommodative Kuroda, Ueda, YCC, There's, Hirokazu Matsuno, Seiji Adachi, Asahi Noguchi, Ryozo Himino, Shinichi Uchida, Uchida, Masato Kanda, Kanda, Takahide, Leika Kihara, Takaya Yamaguchi, Takahiko Wada, Kentaro Sugiyama, Yoshifumi, Sam Holmes Organizations: Bank of Japan, REUTERS, TOKYO, Bank, Ueda, Reuters, BIT, Asahi, Nikkei, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan

☆ BOJ to keep ultra-low rates, may debate fine-tuning yield cap
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-27 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

At the two-day meeting ending on Friday, the BOJ is expected to maintain its yield curve control (YCC) targets at -0.1% for short-term interest rates and 0% for the 10-year bond yield. With the BOJ set to keep short-term rates negative, a tweak to the yield cap or allowance band is unlikely to trigger a spike in borrowing costs that would severely hurt the economy. There is no consensus within the board on how soon the BOJ should dial back stimulus. Former BOJ board member Takahide Kiuchi expects the central bank to eventually modify YCC, but stand pat on Friday. "I don't think the BOJ sees an imminent need to act, as markets aren't attacking its yield cap this time."

Persons: Ueda, Kazuo Ueda, Takahide Kiuchi, Leika Kihara, Takahiko Wada, Tetsushi, Takaya Yamaguchi, Yoshifumi, Kentaro Sugiyama, Sam Holmes Organizations: Bank of Japan's, Monetary Fund, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, YCC

Yet, with services price growth also slowing last month, policymakers will feel that wage pressures have yet to build up enough to warrant an imminent tweak to the ultra-loose monetary stance. We'll likely see inflation slow in coming months, which would allow the BOJ to keep policy steady for the time being," said Toru Suehiro, chief economist at Daiwa Securities. "While services prices may rise next year, those for goods will stay weak. "If more firms hike wages and pass on the cost, services prices could overshoot," said Yoshiki Shinke, chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute. "Inflation excluding food and energy will likely moderate ahead, but the pace of slowdown could be gradual."

Persons: We'll, Toru Suehiro, Kazuo Ueda, Yoshiki Shinke, Leika Kihara, Takahiko Wada, Sam Holmes Organizations: Bank of Japan, Daiwa Securities, Reuters Graphics Services, Dai, Research, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Japan

Some market players bet the central bank could widen the allowance band set around its yield target to arrest market distortions caused by its heavy bond buying. With the 10-year yield moving stably below the 0.5% yield cap, however, many BOJ policymakers see no imminent need to take fresh steps against the side-effects of YCC, the sources said. Notwithstanding abrupt moves in the bonds and yen, the BOJ is likely to make no changes to its policy framework next week, they said. "We expect the BOJ will keep major policy levers unchanged next week," said Stefan Angrick, senior economist at Moody's Analytics. More than three-quarters of economists polled by Reuters said they expect the BOJ to keep policy steady including its yield control scheme next week.

Persons: Shinichi Uchida's, Kazuo Ueda's, Stefan Angrick, Leika Kihara, Takahiko Wada, Sam Holmes Organizations: Bank of Japan, Moody's, Reuters, Thomson Locations: BOJ, TOKYO

The nationwide core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes fresh food costs, rose 3.3% in June from a year earlier, matching a median market forecast. A hike in utility bills added to a steady increase in food and daily necessity prices, adding to the burden of households. But so-called "core core" inflation, which strips away both fresh food and fuel costs, slowed 4.2% in June from a 4.3% rise in May, a sign the rapid pace of increase seen in the past few months was moderating. As inflation perks up, markets are simmering with speculation the BOJ could soon phase out its controversial yield curve control (YCC) policy that is criticised for distorting market pricing and narrowing margins for financial institution. Under YCC, the BOJ guides short-term interest rates at -0.1% and buys huge amounts of government bonds to cap the 10-year bond yield around 0% as part of efforts to fire up inflation to its 2% target.

Persons: Kazuo Ueda's, Leika Kihara, Takahiko Wada, Sam Holmes Organizations: Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Japan

However, there is uncertainty about how long households can weather price hikes and generate inflation driven more by demand, which holds the key to whether BOJ's 2% target can be achieved in a sustainable manner, analysts say. The Tokyo core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile fresh food but includes fuel costs, rose 3.2% in June from a year earlier, accelerating from a 3.1% gain in May. While companies offered wage hikes unseen in three decades this year, inflation-adjusted real pay continues to fall in a sign of pain consumers are feeling from the wave of price hikes. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has repeatedly said the BOJ will maintain ultra-loose policy until stronger wage growth keeps inflation sustainably around its 2% target. "The BOJ may revise up its inflation forecast but probably keep policy steady in July," said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute.

Persons: Yoshiki Shinke, Teikoku Databank, Kazuo Ueda, Ryozo Himino, Takeshi Minami, Takahiko Wada, Leika, Satoshi Sugiyama, Kantaro, Sam Holmes Organizations: Bank of Japan, Dai, Research, Reuters, BOJ, Norinchukin Research, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, TOKYO

The inflation figures for Tokyo, which is seen as a leading indicator of nationwide trends, will likely keep alive expectations the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will phase out its massive stimulus this year. The increase in the Tokyo core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile fresh food but includes fuel costs, followed a 3.1% gain in May and compared with a median market forecast for a 3.3% rise. With inflation already exceeding its target, markets are rife with speculation the BOJ could soon phase out ultra-loose monetary policy under new governor Kazuo Ueda. Ueda has repeatedly said inflation will slow in coming months as cost-push factors dissipate, and that the BOJ will maintain ultra-loose policy until stronger wage growth ensures Japan can sustainably see inflation hit its 2% target. Reporting by Takahiko Wada and Leika Kihara; Editing by Sam HolmesOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Kazuo Ueda, Ueda, Takahiko Wada, Leika, Sam Holmes Organizations: Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, TOKYO, Japan's, Japan

Core consumer inflation has now stayed above the central bank's 2% target for 14 straight months, casting doubt on its view the recent cost-driven inflation will prove temporary. "As the pass-through of rising costs runs its course, core consumer inflation will peak around summer," said Ryosuke Katagi, market economist at Mizuho Securities. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has stressed the need to keep loose policy until inflation is sustainably around 2% and accompanied by wage hikes. He has also said core consumer inflation will slow back below 2% by September or October, though sustained price rises have put that view into some doubt. In its last projections made in April, the BOJ expected core consumer inflation to hit 1.8% in the current fiscal year ending in March 2024.

Persons: Ryosuke, Stefan Angrick, Kazuo Ueda, Leika Kihara, Takahiko Wada, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: Mizuho Securities, Bank of Japan, Reuters, Moody's, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Japan's, Tokyo

☆ Bank of Japan set to keep ultra-low rates, may signal inflation overshoot
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-11 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/2] Visitors are seen at the headquarters of Bank of Japan in Tokyo, Japan, January 17, 2023. Ueda told parliament on Friday that corporate price-setting behaviour was showing changes that could work to push up inflation more than expected. While the BOJ will not produce fresh inflation forecasts next week, it may signal that inflation is overshooting initial projections - possibly at Ueda's post-meeting briefing, the sources said. "The BOJ must be vigilant to both the risk of an inflation overshoot, and the risk of a deep overseas slump hitting Japan's economy." With droves of companies continuing to hike prices, the BOJ is widely expected to upgrade its inflation forecasts at its next quarterly review in July, analysts say.

Persons: Issei Kato, BOJ, Ueda, Kazuo Ueda, Leika Kihara, Takahiko Wada, Kim Coghill Organizations: Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, TOKYO

☆ BOJ set to keep ultra-low rates, may signal inflation overshoot
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-09 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Persons: Issei Kato, BOJ, Ueda, Kazuo Ueda, Leika Kihara, Takahiko Wada, Kim Coghill Organizations: Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, TOKYO

☆ Japan's core CPI rises 3.4% in April yr/yr - govt
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

TOKYO, May 19 (Reuters) - Japan's core consumer prices rose 3.4% in April from a year earlier, government data showed on Friday. The increase in the core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile fresh food but includes energy costs, matched a median market forecast and followed a 3.1% rise in March. Reporting by Takahiko Wada and Leika Kihara; Editing by Muralikumar AnantharamanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Services inflation accelerated to 1.7% in April from 1.5% in March, the data showed, suggesting that rising labour costs may be starting to feed into broader consumer inflation. "Given stubborn food price pressures, we now expect underlying inflation to peak at 4.5% by mid-year," said Darren Tay, Japan economist at Capital Economics. "But the inflationary cycle is probably at its tail end - producer price inflation has fallen significantly over the past three months. Ueda has stressed the need to keep monetary policy ultra-loose until inflation is sustainably around 2% and accompanied by wage hikes. He has also said Japan's core consumer inflation will slow back below 2% toward the latter half of the current fiscal year ending in March 2024.

The core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile fresh food, but includes energy costs, rose 3.1% in March from a year earlier, government data showed on Friday, matching a median market forecast. The year-on-year rise in the so-called "core core" index was the fastest since December 1981, when Japan was experiencing an asset-inflated bubble economy. Persistent rises in global commodity prices have prodded many Japanese companies, long reluctant to hike prices, to finally pass on their higher costs to consumers, pushing up consumer inflation to well above the BOJ's 2% target. Markets are focusing on the BOJ's quarterly outlook report due after the meeting, which will include inflation forecasts extending through fiscal 2025. Reporting by Leika Kihara and Takahiko Wada; Editing by Clarence FernandezOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ BOJ open to tweaking YCC this year if wage momentum holds - sources
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"Given looming overseas economic risks, it's appropriate to maintain ultra-loose monetary policy now," said one of the sources, a view echoed by two more sources. Others in the BOJ see scope to debate a tweak possibly in the coming months, emboldened by big pay hikes offered by major firms in annual spring wage talks, the sources say. An intensifying labour shortage will likely keep companies under pressure to hike wages, even if the economy slows, according to those who see room for a near-term policy tweak. Market developments will also be crucial in determining the timing of a policy tweak, they say. Ueda has repeatedly said the BOJ will maintain ultra-loose monetary policy, including YCC, as sustained achievement of 2% inflation has yet to come into sight.

While factory output rebounded in February, some analysts warn of mounting downside risks as slumping global demand for technology goods hits the country's exports. Inflation will probably stay elevated at least during the first half of this year," said Yoshiki Shike, chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute. Separately, factory output rose 4.5% in February from January, better than a forecast 2.7% gain and rebounding from a revised 5.3% drop in January, on easing supply bottlenecks for carmakers. "There's a bigger risk of a downgrade in manufacturers' output plans due to weaknesses in the information-technology (IT) sector. Global demand is shifting away from goods towards services, which is bad news for Japan's export-reliant economy," Shinke of Dai-ichi Life Research said.

The data underscores the challenge incoming Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda faces in assessing whether the recent cost-driven inflation will shift to one backed by solid demand and wage growth. The pace of increase slowed from a 3.3% gain in February and a nearly 42-year high of 4.3% hit in January, due largely to the effect of government subsidies to curb utility bills. In a glimmer of hope, factory output rose 4.5% in February from the previous month, government data showed on Friday, more than a median market forecast for a 2.7% gain. Manufacturers surveyed by the government expect to increase output by 2.3% in March and by 4.4% in April, the output data showed. Reporting by Takahiko Wada and Leika Kihara; Editing by Sam Holmes and Jacqueline WongOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

With inflation still exceeding the Bank of Japan's 2% target, the data will keep alive market expectations of a near-term tweak to its bond yield control policy, analysts say. The core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile fresh food but includes oil products, rose 3.1% in February from a year earlier, government data showed, matching a median market forecast and slowing sharply from a 41-year high of 4.2% seen in January. "The new BOJ leadership will scrutinise Japan's price trend, as well as U.S. and European developments, in deciding its policy move," he said. But some BOJ policymakers have flagged the chance inflation could exceed initial expectations, as price hikes and wage gains show sign of broadening. Reporting by Takahiko Wada and Leika Kihara; Editing by Sam HolmesOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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